As the Gameweek 7 deadline approaches, FPL managers are busy analysing the data to find the forwards who can bring home the points. Whether you're looking for a reliable captain, a value-for-money differential, or a player about to hit a purple patch, the underlying stats are crucial.

This week, our data-driven analysis, combined with a look at the upcoming fixtures, focuses on the key forwards to target for FPL GW7.

Key Takeaways for GW7 Forwards:

• Top Captain Pick: Erling Haaland remains the standout premium choice, with underlying numbers that are simply off the charts.
• Best Value Pick: Jean-Philippe Mateta is significantly underperforming his Expected Goals (xG), making him a prime target before his luck turns.
• The In-Form Option: Igor Thiago continues to find the net, but tough fixtures might make him a short-term punt.
• Solid Mid-Priced Choice: Viktor Gyökeres has an amazing run of games, making him a great long-term hold.

FPL GW7 Forwards: A Data-Driven Analysis

Here we dive into the numbers and fixtures behind our top forward picks for Gameweek 7, showing you exactly why they make our list.

The Essential Premium Pick: Erling Haaland (Man City)

Is Erling Haaland still the best forward in FPL?

Yes, without a doubt. Erling Haaland is the most explosive and reliable forward option in the game. Playing away against Brentford in Gameweek 7, he is the safest and most logical captaincy choice for your team.

The Data-Driven Verdict:

The numbers speak for themselves. Haaland has already racked up 8 goals and 1 assist this season from 6 starts. His underlying statistics are staggering, with a total Expected Goals (xG) of 7.35, which translates to an incredible 1.32 xG per 90 minutes. This means he is consistently getting into elite goal-scoring positions in every single match.

Upcoming Fixtures & Long-Term Verdict:

Man City's fixtures are a mixed bag, with a great home game against Everton in GW8 followed by tougher matches against Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H), and Newcastle (A). However, Haaland is fixture-proof. His incredible stats mean he can score against any team. He is an essential season-keeper. Verdict: Buy and Hold.

The "Buy Low" Pick: Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace)

Who is the best value forward to buy for GW7?

Based on underlying performance data, Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta is arguably the best value forward to target right now. His statistics suggest a big haul is just around the corner, and a decent run of fixtures could be the perfect time for him to deliver.

The Data-Driven Verdict:

This is a classic case of backing the stats, not the recent points. Mateta has only scored 2 goals so far this season, but his Expected Goals (xG) stands at an impressive 3.59. This is one of the biggest underperformances in the league, signalling that he has been unlucky not to score more. With a strong xG per 90' of 0.61, he is getting high-quality chances consistently.

Upcoming Fixtures & Long-Term Verdict:

Crystal Palace has a nice run of games coming up, facing Everton (A) and Bournemouth (H) before a tough match against Arsenal in GW9. After that, they have two more good home fixtures. This gives Mateta a great platform to start converting his chances into FPL points. Verdict: Great value pick for the medium term.

The Solid Option: Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal)

Is he a reliable FPL option for that starting striker spot?

Viktor Gyökeres is shaping up to be a dependable mid-priced forward who consistently gets into goal-scoring positions. When you factor in Arsenal's incredible upcoming fixtures, he becomes one of the best long-term assets in the game.

The Data-Driven Verdict:

Gyökeres has scored 3 goals from 6 starts this season, a decent return for his price point. His underlying data is very encouraging, with an xG of 2.38 and an xG per 90' of 0.44. This shows he's not reliant on luck and should continue to get chances.

Upcoming Fixtures & Long-Term Verdict:

Arsenal's fixture run is a sea of green. They face West Ham (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Burnley (A), and Sunderland (A) in their next five games. This is arguably the best schedule in the league, though Crystal Palace and Sunderland may prove tougher tests in reality than they appear on paper. Gyökeres is a fantastic option to buy now and hold for the long term. Verdict: Top transfer target.

The One to Watch: João Pedro (Chelsea)

Is João Pedro a good long-term FPL pick?

João Pedro is a very interesting prospect, but timing is everything. While he is not a recommended transfer for Gameweek 7 due to a tough fixture, he should be high on your watchlist for the weeks ahead.

The Data-Driven Verdict:

With 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 starts, João Pedro has demonstrated his ability to be involved in Chelsea's attack. His underlying numbers aren't explosive, with an xG of 1.50 and an xGI of 1.73, but his creativity provides multiple paths to FPL points. Crucially, with injuries in the attacking unit to players like midfielder Cole Palmer and forward Liam Delap, João Pedro's role should be even more secure, adding to his appeal.

Upcoming Fixtures & Long-Term Verdict:

Chelsea face a difficult home game against Liverpool in GW7, making him an easy player to avoid for now. However, after that, their schedule turns very favourable, with promising fixtures against Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Wolves (H), and Burnley (A) all on the horizon. The strategy here is clear: wait one week and target him as a priority transfer from Gameweek 8. Verdict: Watch for now, buy from GW8.

The Form-Based Punt: Igor Thiago (Brentford)

Which forward is currently in the best form?

If you're an FPL manager who loves to back players on a hot streak, Igor Thiago is your man. He has been clinical in front of goal recently, but a look at the fixtures suggests he might not be a short-term hold, with some difficult games ahead. Perhaps it's best to wait.

The Data-Driven Verdict:

Igor Thiago has been on fire, scoring 4 goals already this season. He is currently outperforming his Expected Goals (xG) of 2.05, which suggests he is being incredibly clinical with his chances. While this level of finishing can be difficult to maintain, his xG per 90' of 0.37 is still solid.

Upcoming Fixtures & Long-Term Verdict:

Brentford's fixtures are about to turn sour. They face Man City (H) and Liverpool (H) in two of their next three games. While they have a good fixture against West Ham in GW8, it's a tough run. The player should not be considered a good option, as only GW8 is favourable. Managers should look for other options due to Brentford's difficult upcoming fixtures; it is better to wait. Verdict: Avoid.

FPL GW7 Forwards FAQ

Is it worth taking a -4 hit for a forward this week?

It depends on the move. Taking a hit to bring in a player with a high ceiling like Haaland for a captaincy is almost always justifiable. A hit for a player like Gyökeres could also pay off massively given his fixtures. However, for more sideways moves, it's often better to wait a week.

Are there other forwards to consider for GW7?

The players above are our top data-driven picks for the Gameweek, but many other forwards are worth keeping an eye on. For a full breakdown of other potential targets identified by our algorithm, head over to our Player Watchlist page. There you can explore the data and analyse the detailed stats for each player on our radar to find the perfect addition to your squad.