Right, let's have a chat. Gameweek 11 is upon us, and the forward position is causing managers a proper headache. We all own Erling Haaland, but that second or third striker spot is a minefield. You've got players like João Pedro, owned by nearly half the game, who just delivered 52 points. Then you have others who look quiet on the surface but whose underlying numbers are screaming. This is the classic FPL dilemma: form vs. fixtures vs. data. It's that moment where a knee-jerk transfer can feel so tempting, but a calm, data-driven approach is what separates a good rank from a great one. My goal this week is simple: to cut through that noise, analyse the key forward options, and identify the genuine transfer targets from the statistical traps.

Key Takeaways

• Haaland is Still King: Despite facing Liverpool, Erling Haaland's underlying data (1.07 xG/90 and 1.14 xGI/90) is so far beyond any other player that selling him is simply not a viable strategy.
• The Elite Differential: Jean-Philippe Mateta is the standout transfer target. His xG/90 of 0.84 is truly elite, second only to Haaland, and his GW11 fixture at home to Brighton is an ideal entry point.
• The Ownership 'Trap': João Pedro's 45.5% ownership is built on shaky ground. His underlying involvement (0.42 xGI/90) is alarmingly low, suggesting his 3 goals and 3 assists are unsustainable. He is a prime 'sell-high' candidate.
• The Fixture Play: Danny Welbeck (7.9% owned) offers a fantastic blend of solid stats (0.60 xG/90) and an excellent upcoming fixture run, making him a powerful differential pick.

Which Forwards are the Best Transfer Targets for GW11?

The Short Answer: Erling Haaland remains the standout premium pick despite a tough fixture, whilst Jean-Philippe Mateta's elite underlying data (0.84 xG/90) makes him the strongest mid-priced option to buy this week.

Let's get the elephant in the room sorted first: Erling Haaland (MCI). He's got Liverpool (H) and Newcastle (A) in his next two. On paper, that's a brutal run. But this is Haaland. The man has 13 goals, 98 points, and an Expected Goals (xG) per 90 of 1.07. To put that in perspective, a 0.50 xG/90 is considered good. He is operating on a different planet. He is fixture-proof. He is the perma-captain until proven otherwise. Do not sell him.

With that settled, who do we partner him with? This is where the FPL Stats Lab Player Comparison tool becomes essential. Let's compare two of the most-discussed options.

First, Jean-Philippe Mateta (CRY). He has 6 goals and 48 points, but it's his underlying numbers that have my full attention. He boasts an xG/90 of 0.84 and an Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) per 90 of 0.89. These are phenomenal stats, comfortably the best of any forward not named Haaland. It shows he's not just finishing his chances; he's consistently getting into high-quality scoring positions. A home game against Brighton in GW11 is a perfect time to jump on. At 22.9% ownership, he's still in that sweet spot where he can make a real difference to your rank.

Now compare him to João Pedro (CHE), who we will discuss more later. His 52 points look great, but his xGI/90 is a paltry 0.42. Mateta is generating more than double the attacking threat, for a similar price. The data makes this a very simple decision: Mateta is the prime target.

Are There Any Cheaper Differentials to Target Up Front?

The Short Answer: Yes, Danny Welbeck (7.9% ownership) is a strong differential due to his excellent xG/90 (0.60) and a fantastic upcoming fixture run starting with CRY (A) and BRE (H).

Okay, so Mateta is the top target. But what if you're looking for a real differential to help you climb those mini-leagues? This is where I love to combine the Player Comparison tool with our Fixture Difficulty Planner. I'm looking for low ownership, good stats, and a 'sea of green' fixtures.

One name pops immediately: Danny Welbeck (BHA). His ownership is just 7.9%. He's quietly racked up 6 goals this season, and he's done it in only 625 minutes. That's efficient. His xG/90 is a very strong 0.60, and his xGI/90 is 0.67. These numbers tell me he's a key part of Brighton's attack when he's on the pitch.

Now, look at those fixtures. GW11 is away to Palace, a derby that's always open, followed by Brentford (H) and Nottingham Forest (A). That is a beautiful run. Welbeck is the classic FPL 'buy'—a proven goalscorer, with solid underlying data, low ownership, and a great fixture swing. He's the perfect third striker, or even a second striker if you're looking to save funds.

What about Thiago (BRE)? He's in a similar bracket with 6 goals and 8.2% ownership. His stats are solid (0.50 xG/90), but not quite as impressive as Welbeck's. With Newcastle (H) and Brighton (A) next, followed by a great home game vs. Burnley, he's more of a 'wait and see'. I'd rather move for Welbeck now and target Thiago from GW13. For now, Welbeck has the better combination of stats and immediate fixtures.

Why is João Pedro Considered a 'Trap' in FPL?

The Short Answer: João Pedro's 45.5% ownership is a major concern, as his 6 goal involvements (3G, 3A) are masking very low underlying stats (0.42 xGI/90), making him a prime 'sell-high' candidate.

I need to dedicate a section to this because it's vital. I see so many managers holding João Pedro (CHE), and I completely understand why. He has 52 points and 45.5% ownership. Selling him feels dangerous. Holding him feels 'safe'.

This, my friends, is a classic FPL trap.

I've been in this game for over a decade, and I've seen this exact player profile burn managers time and time again. When you open the Player Comparison tool, the data screams 'SELL'. His 52 points have come from 3 goals and 3 assists. His Expected Goals (xG) for the season is 3.43—so his 3 goals are perfectly sustainable. No problem there.

The issue is the assists. He has 3 assists... from an Expected Assists (xA) of just 0.59. He has delivered 5x the assists that the data suggests he should have. His total xGI is 4.02, but he has 6 returns. This is a massive, unsustainable overperformance. His xGI/90 (his actual involvement in attack per game) is just 0.42. That is less than half of Mateta's (0.89) and significantly lower than Welbeck's (0.67).

He has two good fixtures next: Wolves (H) and Burnley (A). He might get lucky again. But he is not involved enough in Chelsea's attack to justify his price or his ownership. He is the definition of a 'sell-high' player. This is a golden opportunity to sell him to a data-blind manager and bring in Mateta or Welbeck, banking the profit and gaining a player with vastly superior underlying numbers. Don't walk into the trap.

Final Verdict: The FPL Stats Lab Forward 'Buy' List for GW11

Right, let's put it all together. The forward position is a chance to make up serious ground. Stop tinkering with your defence and focus on getting your front line right. Here is my definitive plan of action.

• THE HOLD: Erling Haaland (MCI)
  His 1.07 xG/90 is a cheat code. He's playing Liverpool. I don't care. He is the one player in the game who is 100% fixture-proof. Keep, and keep the armband on him.
• THE 'MUST-BUY': Jean-Philippe Mateta (CRY)
  The data is undeniable. An xGI/90 of 0.89 is elite. He's the focal point of the Palace attack and has a great home fixture. He is the number one forward transfer target this week.
• THE DIFFERENTIAL: Danny Welbeck (BHA)
  At 7.9% ownership, he's the perfect differential. A 0.60 xG/90 is excellent, and his fixture run from GW11-GW13 is one of the best. Get him in now before the crowd catches on.
• THE 'SELL-HIGH': João Pedro (CHE)
  A classic FPL trap. 45.5% ownership and 52 points mask dreadful underlying numbers (0.42 xGI/90). Sell him to your mini-league rivals and reinvest in Mateta or Welbeck.
• THE WATCHLIST: Woltemade (NEW)
  His stats (0.52 xG/90) are solid. But with Man City in GW12, he's one to monitor. Add him to your Player Watchlist for a potential move in GW13.

Want to run these comparisons yourself? Head over to the FPL Stats Lab Player Comparison tool to analyse the data and find the players your rivals are missing. Good luck in Gameweek 11.