Key Takeaways

• Premium Pick: Haaland remains the standout choice with exceptional underlying numbers (1.14 xG/90) despite a tricky away fixture at Villa Park
• Value Option: Woltemade offers outstanding value at his price point with 4 goals from limited minutes and a favourable home fixture against Fulham
• Form Player: Welbeck boasts the strongest recent form (8.3) and presents an intriguing differential option for the trip to Manchester United
• Fixtures to Target: Newcastle's home match against Fulham and Arsenal hosting Crystal Palace stand out as the most promising attacking opportunities

Who Should You Captain in Gameweek 9?

The captaincy debate for Gameweek 9 centres squarely on whether to stick with Erling Haaland despite his challenging away fixture at Aston Villa. The Norwegian remains in a different stratosphere statistically, having already netted 11 goals from just 683 minutes whilst accumulating an impressive 83 total points.

What truly separates Haaland from his peers is his underlying performance. His Expected Goals per 90 minutes stands at 1.14, significantly ahead of any other premium forward in the league. Even more impressively, his Expected Goal Involvements per 90 (1.22) demonstrate that he's not just getting chances—he's getting the best chances with remarkable consistency.

With 66.6% ownership, captaining Haaland feels less like a differential move and more like damage limitation. The question isn't whether he'll score against Villa; it's whether you can afford the rank drop if he does and you've looked elsewhere.

Which Forward Offers the Best Value for Gameweek 9?

For managers seeking value in their forward line, Woltemade emerges as the standout option heading into Gameweek 9. The Newcastle striker has been remarkably efficient, converting his limited opportunities into 4 goals from just 393 minutes of action.

Whilst his Expected Goals per 90 (0.6) doesn't match the likes of Haaland and Mateta, this figure becomes far more impressive when considering his price point and the context of his limited game time. At 18.4% ownership, he represents a calculated punt that could deliver significant differential gains.

Newcastle's home fixture against Fulham provides an excellent platform for Woltemade to add to his tally. The Magpies will be looking to build momentum at St James' Park, and their forward should see plenty of service against a Fulham defence that has shown vulnerability on the road.

Is Mateta Worth Considering Despite His Tough Fixture?

Jean-Philippe Mateta presents one of Gameweek 9's most intriguing dilemmas. The Crystal Palace striker boasts impressive underlying statistics—his Expected Goals total of 7.85 trails only Haaland amongst our analysed forwards, whilst his xG per 90 (1.02) confirms he's consistently getting into dangerous positions.

With 5 goals already to his name and having played 690 minutes, Mateta has established himself as Palace's focal point in attack. However, the Eagles face a daunting trip to the Emirates to face Arsenal, a fixture that favours the home side.

At 12.6% ownership, Mateta can be a differential pick. For managers already holding him, this might be a week to look elsewhere for captaincy options whilst keeping faith in his underlying numbers for the longer term. For those considering bringing him in, waiting for Palace's fixture swing might prove the more prudent approach.

Should You Target Welbeck as a Differential Option?

Danny Welbeck's recent form makes him one of the most compelling differential options in the forward line. With a form rating of 8.3 the Brighton striker is clearly in excellent touch despite his modest ownership of just 3.3%.

Welbeck has matched Woltemade's output with 4 goals from 454 minutes, but what's particularly encouraging is his Expected Goal Involvements per 90 (0.69). This suggests he's not just scoring but also contributing to Brighton's attacking play more broadly.

Brighton's trip to Manchester United presents an intriguing opportunity. Whilst Old Trafford might seem daunting on paper, United's defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed repeatedly this season, and Brighton's progressive style of play could exploit those weaknesses. For managers seeking a true differential with upside potential, Welbeck offers exactly that profile.

What About Arsenal's Gyökeres—Is He Worth the Investment?

Viktor Gyökeres' statistics present a cautionary tale for FPL managers. Despite playing 666 minutes across 8 starts for Arsenal, the Swedish striker has managed just 3 goals and registers a concerning form rating of 2.0—the lowest amongst our analysed forwards.

His underlying numbers tell a similar story. An Expected Goals per 90 of just 0.46 suggests he's not getting into dangerous positions with sufficient frequency, whilst his total xG of 3.41 indicates he's perhaps fortunate to have converted even the three goals he has.

Whilst Arsenal's home fixture against Crystal Palace appears favourable on paper, and his 23.1% ownership suggests significant faith from the FPL community, the data doesn't support investment at this stage. Arsenal's attacking returns are far more likely to come through their midfield and wider options than through Gyökeres, making him a player to monitor rather than target.

Gameweek 9 Forward Strategy: Final Recommendations

As we approach the Gameweek 9 deadline, the forward landscape offers both obvious choices and intriguing differential options. Haaland remains the safest premium pick despite his challenging fixture—his underlying numbers are simply too good to ignore, and at his ownership level, captaining him feels almost mandatory unless you're deliberately chasing rank.

For those seeking value or differential options, Woltemade's home fixture against Fulham makes him the standout choice, whilst Welbeck offers genuine differential potential for managers willing to back Brighton's attacking credentials at Old Trafford.

Mateta holders should probably keep faith given his excellent underlying statistics, but this isn't the week to bring him in ahead of a difficult Arsenal away fixture. As for Gyökeres, the data suggests looking elsewhere until his performances and underlying numbers show significant improvement.

Remember, successful FPL management isn't just about following the crowd—it's about using data to identify value and making calculated decisions that align with your overall season strategy. Use the insights above alongside your own research to make the choices that best fit your team's needs and your rank objectives.

Want to dive deeper into the numbers? Access FPL Stats Lab suite of analytical tools and make data-driven decisions for your team.